Welcome back to the latest edition of the Phillies Beat newsletter! 

Happy holidays, everybody. 
 
Remember a year ago at this time? Almost nobody would have picked the Phillies to win the NL pennant in 2022. They had holes in left field, center field and the bullpen. There were concerns about Didi Gregorius at shortstop, Alec Bohm’s future at third base and Joe Girardi’s status as manager. 
 
But everything came together on June 3, when Rob Thomson replaced Girardi. Who in the world would have predicted Thomson managing the Phillies, by the way? Nobody, not even Thomson. 
 
So with that in mind, why not make a few 2023 predictions for the Phillies? I’m quite confident nobody will forward me this email in a few months and tell me how wildly wrong I was. 

1. Aaron Nola will sign a contract extension this spring
This needs to happen. Nola has been one of baseball’s best pitchers for years. He is fifth in the Majors among pitchers with 21.6 WAR (per FanGraphs) since 2018, behind only Jacob deGrom (25.6), Max Scherzer (25.5), Gerrit Cole (23.2) and Zack Wheeler (22.1). Nobody has thrown more innings (871 2/3) in that span.

Nola’s presence in the rotation is a major reason why the Phillies never pursued deGrom, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón this offseason. (They feel they already have two aces, so their money would be better spent elsewhere.) Rodón just got six years, $162 million from the Yankees, but Nola is better and more reliable. He is six months younger, too. Pay the man.

2. Trea Turner will hit leadoff on Opening Day
Everybody loves to talk about the lineup, and that talk has picked up since Turner joined the Phillies. Thomson hinted at the Winter Meetings that he might want to take more advantage of Kyle Schwarber’s power while Bryce Harper recovers from Tommy John surgery. Turner is the only choice to replace Schwarber in the leadoff spot. Turner will see the Phillies’ first pitch of the 2023 season on March 30 in Texas, likely against deGrom. 

3. Andrew Painter will finish in the top three for National League Rookie of the Year
Painter might open the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley because the Phillies will be monitoring his workload closely. But MLB Pipeline's No. 24 prospect will be in the rotation at some point, and the prediction here is that he will live up to the hype.

4. Bryce Harper will return in June
The Phillies said they expect Harper back by the All-Star break, but I believe agent Scott Boras when he said, “Our history with Bryce is that he has super-healing qualities.” Expect Harper back in June. 

5. Rhys Hoskins will have a career year
Hoskins will be a free agent after next season, and he will make the most of his opportunity to establish his market with the best year of his career. That is saying something. Since his debut on Aug. 10, 2017, Hoskins ranks in the 90th percentile among qualified players in on-base percentage (.353), 91st percentile in slugging percentage (.492) and 93rd percentile in OPS (.846). 

The Phillies traded Marlon Byrd to Cincinnati on New Year’s Eve 2014. Who did they receive in the deal? 
 
A) Ben Lively 
B) Jeff Manship 
C) Sean O’Sullivan 
D) Jonathan Pettibone 

MLB Network ranked its top 10 games from 2022, which included three Phillies games (two good, one bad): 

• No. 8: Harper's game-tying grand slam in the eighth inning and Bryson Stott’s walk-off homer in the ninth beat the Angels at Citizens Bank Park on June 5. 

• No. 6: The Phillies blew a six-run lead in the ninth inning in a loss to the Mets on May 5. 

• No. 2: Nick Castellanos saved the day in right in the ninth, and J.T. Realmuto hit a go-ahead homer in the 10th in Game 1 of the World Series. 

Ten players in Phillies history have been born on Christmas Day. None were better than Manny Trillo, who posted 6.8 bWAR from 1979-82. Second on the list is right-hander Steve Montgomery, who had a 3.34 ERA in 53 appearances in 1999. 

A) Ben Lively 

According to STATS, the Phillies have not made a big league transaction on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day since they signed infielder Alex Arias on Christmas Eve in 1997. 

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