Logic and experience tells me that the Brewers and Adames’ reps have talked more than it seems. During last season, there were some rumblings that the Brewers had even put an offer in front of Adames sometime before Opening Day, though neither Adames nor the team has confirmed that. And we know the sides have had extensive contact this winter, since Adames, like Burnes, Eric Lauer, Luis Urías, Keston Hiura and others is represented by CAA Sports. Isn’t it logical to think that during their various discussions the sides broached the concept of longer-term contracts, even if just to get a vibe about interest?
I’m also certain that Arnold loves Adames, considering Arnold was with the Rays when they got Adames from the Tigers in the David Price deal in 2014, and when the Brewers got Adames in May of '21.
But, you can love a player and still recognize the reality that the last two calendar years were tough on the Brewers’ chances. Here are the mega contracts for free-agent shortstops since the start of 2021:
• Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340 million)
• Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million)
• Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million)
• Javier Báez (six years, $140 million)
• Trevor Story (six years, $140 million)
• Marcus Semien (seven years, $175 million)
• Trea Turner (11 years, $300 million)
• Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million)
• Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177 million)
• Carlos Correa (six years, $200 million)
I’ll be accused of carrying water for the Brewers, and that’s fine, but the reality is that a contract in the $23-$25 million per year range (and up) represents a massive risk, especially in the context of the $26 million per year bet on Christian Yelich in March 2020. There’s still hope that Yelich will deliver on that investment, but it’s representative of the risk involved.
Adding another huge extension for Adames -- or Burnes or Woodruff -- would leave no room for error for a club that topped out last year at about a $137 million payroll. If the outlook for Yelich doesn’t improve, and another big extension doesn’t pan out as planned, it could plunge the Brewers into the sort of teardown they have said they are trying to avoid.
If you think the Brewers should blow past that payroll figure to capitalize on the elite starting pitching they have assembled, that’s a valid stance. But it’s a different discussion. A GM has to operate within the parameters they are given.
Then there’s the player side. If you’re Adames’ agent, and you see the market for shortstops in the past two-plus years, wouldn’t you be enticed to reach the open market with your player going into his age-29 season, and see what it bears?
There’s still plenty of time for this to unfold. Remember, Adames has one more year of contractual control before reaching free agency after the 2024 season.