Welcome back to the Cubs Beat newsletter. Jordan Bastian has covered baseball for MLB.com since 2005, including the Cubs since the 2019 season.
As Ian Happ became a more established hitter in the Major Leagues, growing into a regular part of the Cubs’ lineup and reaching All-Star status last year, the outfielder started to notice things changing in front of him as he stepped into the box and surveyed opposing defenses.
“I definitely started to notice myself getting shifted,” Happ said during Cubs Convention in January. “Did the game change? Or did they just have more information on me? I don't know.”
The answer to that question is simply, “yes.” The game changed over the past several seasons as available data on players increased in both volume and specifics. But Major League Baseball is now trying to strike a balance between embracing the information age while still producing the type of product that baseball fans crave.
Starting in 2023, MLB is eliminating the kinds of drastic defensive shifts that were becoming more commonplace and impacting offense. The new guidelines require at least four infielders (on the dirt) with at least two infielders on either side of second base. No infielders are allowed to switch sides, and no four-man outfields are permitted.
“I think a lot of us are really looking forward to that,” new Cubs first baseman Eric Hosmer said. “It just kind of seems like there's going to be more hits out there for guys. There's no worse feeling than hitting the ball hard up the middle and seeing the shortstop standing right there. So maybe this could be better for the offensive player, especially the left-handed hitter.”
It should be noted here that infielders could still be positioned far enough toward the middle to still reach balls hit in the direction of second base and center field. What likely will happen more often is balls hit to shallow right by a lefty batter will drop in for a hit.
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The upcoming spring slate will provide the initial testing ground for how this plays out.
“I don't know exactly how the infields are going to look now,” new Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger said. “I know that's probably what we'll knock out Spring Training, getting used to it. But, it's definitely exciting, as a left-handed hitter, I'd imagine.”
MLB.com analyst Mike Petriello has examined how the shift could help and hurt some batters around the Majors in ’23. With the caveat that this is not an exact science -- these projections do not factor in batted-ball luck or changes in approach, for instance -- Mike sent over some numbers on how the shift rules could impact the Cubs.
His calculations gave Happ (a switch-hitter) an extra seven hits from the left side. Last year, Happ saw a shift rate of 62% (up from 57.4% in ’21), and he had a .338 wOBA with no shift, compared to .330 with a shift on. Happ is the only real notable case from ’22, especially for a Cubs team that saw the fourth-lowest shift rate vs. lefty batters in MLB.
Among the newcomers, Bellinger (shifted more than 90% of the time from 2020-22) gains four hits, while Hosmer gains three hits. It should be pointed out that Hosmer was shifted only 16.7% of the time, though he did have a notable difference with no shift (.323 wOBA) vs. with a shift on (.266 wOBA) in ’22.
Really, the coming rule changes may impact the Cubs less on the offensive front and more defensively, especially with the newly formed, athletic up-the-middle combo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Either way, it sounds like the players are on board with what MLB is trying to accomplish.
“I think it's going to be an exciting brand of baseball,” Happ said. “There's going to be hiccups [early in the season] … but I think we're going to look back and say this is a better baseball experience.”
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Dexter Fowler spent only two of his 14 big league seasons with the Cubs, but he made an instant impact as manager Joe Maddon’s “you go, we go” leadoff man, and will forever be linked to club lore. Fowler was a crucial piece to the 2016 team that ended 108 years of World Series championship drought on the North Side.
“That whole year, the buzz in Chicago, the buzz even around the nation … every game was a home game,” Fowler told MLB.com reporter Jon Paul Morosi. “There was Cubs fans everywhere. Honestly, we were like the Beatles. We had security walking us everywhere. It was outrageous.”
What was outrageous was how Fowler ignited Game 7 of the ’16 World Series – one of the greatest games in sports history. Fowler led off with a home run against Cleveland ace Corey Kluber, who had been unflappable throughout that October. Fowler remains the only player to ever hit a leadoff shot in a Game 7 of a Fall Classic.
Fowler, who has joined the Marquee Sports broadcast team as a studio analyst, was a part of the ’15 Cubs team that let the baseball world know Chicago was on the rise. After a memorable return during Spring Training in ’16, Fowler posted a .393 on-base percentage and was named an All-Star. As Fowler recounted in a recent social media post announcing his retirement, that season ended with him, “soaking wet and freezing on the field with tears in my eyes.”
Cubs fans will be forever grateful.
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Dexter Fowler started 118 games as the leadoff batter for the Cubs in 2016. Across the ’17-22 seasons, Chicago gave 31 players at least one start in the No. 1 spot. Which Cubs player has the most starts at leadoff in that six-season span?
A.) Ian Happ
B.) Rafael Ortega
C.) Anthony Rizzo
D.) Kyle Schwarber
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NEW TOP 100 PROSPECTS UNVEILED |
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B.) Ortega started 103 games at leadoff in his time with the Cubs, marking the most in the post-Fowler years. Schwarber (94 starts) ranks second, followed by Ben Zobrist (90), Happ (79), Albert Almora Jr. (64) and Rizzo (64). |
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