The 2023 Cardinals allowed 829 runs, tied for the third-most in the modern history of the franchise. This was mostly about the lack of quality in the starting rotation, an issue that the club had identified months ago and moved aggressively to fix, signing AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray to a three-year deal and veteran starters Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to pacts of one year with a team option for a second. 

There’s probably room for further improvement in the rotation, but it’s clear that the group the Cardinals have now is better than the one they ended the season with. According to FanGraphs’ projections, they had the 25th-best rotation when the offseason began. As of Dec. 14, they’re up to 14th-best. It might not be elite, but it’s certainly better.

While run prevention seems to start and end on the mound, it’s more than that. A big part of what plagued the Cardinals last season was that the fielding that had been so elite over the past few years took a big step back in 2023.

As useful as the new trio of pitchers can be, they combined to post a league-average strikeout rate last year. There’s still going to be some pitch to contact happening here. So, for as much as the discussion has centered on the pitching, the bigger question might be: Can the 2024 team do a better job of catching the ball?

You, the discerning Cardinals fan, probably don’t need numbers to back up the fielding eye test that you just witnessed, but it’s comforting nonetheless to know that they reinforce what it felt like. By Statcast’s outs above average, a range-based metric that combines difficulty of opportunities with how often they’re converted into outs, the Cardinals went from outstanding over the three previous full seasons to below average in 2023. (This has little to do with the retirement of catcher Yadier Molina, as this is all about turning batted balls into outs.)

• 2019: +27, 7th-best
• 2021: +51, best
• 2022: +26, 4th-best
• 2023: -6, 19th-best 

Two years ago, for example, the Cardinals were tied for the lowest batting average allowed on grounders (.217). In 2023, that stepped all the way back to 23rd-lowest (.258). By the old numbers and the new, a great defense fell to poor in the span of two seasons.

If the Cardinals can’t improve that, then the full impact of the new pitchers can’t be realized. So, what went wrong last year, by the numbers, and what can be expected to be improved?

There’s some good news. Let’s break it down into groups: 

Two returnees who should probably be better
Nolan Arenado’s reputation precedes him, and he’ll go into the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest defensive third basemen in history. But in 2023, he went through an odd defensive slump that wasn’t just a fluke of the metrics; it was something he specifically spoke to in August.

Jordan Walker, a Minor League third baseman, began a transition to the outfield in 2022, meaning he’d had barely a year of pro time on the grass when he made his Major League debut.

Yet it got better for Arenado, who posted a -5 OAA in May/June before a more characteristic +6 for the final three months. At 33 next season, he’s not likely to be the all-world defender he once was -- or the best fielding third baseman in the NL, a title now owned by Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes -- but there’s every reason to think he’ll be better.

Walker was, for a time, graded as one of the weakest defenders in the game. (His -6 OAA in June alone is about as poor as a month can get.) As he gained experience, however, he was -1 in September, barely below average. Not yet 22, Walker should benefit considerably from another year of experience.

One defender who might not be seen as much
Speaking to MLB Network Radio earlier this month, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said his outfield would likely be Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman and Walker, with Dylan Carlson as the primary backup. Not mentioned was first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson, who struggled enough on defense that his -9 OAA was second-weakest on the team ahead of only Walker, who as we said was still transitioning to the outfield. It’s not clear what his role is on the 2024 Cardinals, if any; while his left-handed bat might be missed, his glove was not a strength.

The biggest question
Between Paul DeJong and Edman, the Cardinals had enjoyed quality shortstop defense over the past few seasons. Then, in a late-season cameo last season, cannon-armed Masyn Winn was more decent defensively than great in a late-season cameo. He’ll be expected to take on a much larger role in 2024. How will his defense play, comparatively?

Last week, Major League Baseball announced plans for Spring Breakout, a new way to introduce fans to each club’s top prospects. Over four days in March, every Major League team will field a team of its best prospects to compete in a seven-inning exhibition game against another club’s prospects.

The Cardinals are one of two teams that will play two Spring Breakout games, both at Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Fla. The first will be against the Marlins on March 15, followed by a contest against the Astros on March 17. In both cases, the prospect showcase will be part of a doubleheader that includes a Major League Grapefruit League game.

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