Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The bar is higher for Guerrero than for most players, so after delivering a 26-homer, 94-RBI season, Toronto’s All-Star first baseman will look to return to form this year.
Many of the Blue Jays’ power and run-scoring issues in 2023 were illustrated by Vladdy’s performance, as he continued to hit the ball on the ground a lot more frequently than putting it in the air, which resulted in some of the hardest-hit groundouts MLB has ever seen. Fortunately for the former American League MVP runner-up, there’s room -- and opportunity -- for improvement.
“The interesting thing about [Vladdy] and some of his batted-ball data, there are some really positive things about Vladdy and about last year’s performance,” said Atkins. “They just didn’t meet his expectations. … We’ll continue to peel back that layer and individualize it more for him.”
If the Blue Jays can indeed work with Guerrero on how to better communicate and implement their strategy, there’s a very good chance he will deliver better results in 2024. He’s largely expected to do so, according to FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections.
It all starts with the exciting stuff. Guerrero is projected to hit 31 home runs next season vs. the 26 he launched last year. That would signal launch-angle adjustments -- a known talking point around Guerrero since he arrived in the Majors.
But those potential tweaks would translate into way more than a higher home-run total. For a hitter like Vlad, who ranks in the 91st percentile of exit velocity, hitting the ball in the air more often means more prolific opportunities to drive in runs. That begins to explain why ZiPS projects Guerrero will crack 100 RBIs for the first time since his career year in 2021.
Guerrero’s isolated power (ISO) -- a stat that measures a player’s raw power based solely on extra-base hits -- is projected as the highest for any player on the Blue Jays at .214. Compare that to his .179 mark last season and it gets a bit easier to see just how much better Guerrero can be.
The current projections still fall short of 2021, but the Blue Jays will gladly take a potential 100-RBI season from their prized first baseman.