Projected health was always going to be an issue for Fried, who turns 30 on Thursday. This became a bigger issue this past year, when left forearm inflammation limited the Braves veteran to just 14 starts. He remained healthy over the season’s final two months. But in this era of highly lucrative long-term deals, it’s worth questioning how high and how long a team should go with a veteran pitcher.
Aaron Nola received a seven-year, $172 million deal with the Phillies in November. Nola has posted a 4.09 ERA over 96 starts since the start of 2021. The 3.31 FIP he has constructed within this span indicates he’d have fared better with stronger defense.
Fried has posted a 2.71 ERA and a 3.02 FIP over 72 starts within this same three-season span. Nola’s durability certainly carries some value, but Fried has been the more productive pitcher during this span.
So if he does stay healthy this upcoming season, there’s a good chance he’ll be getting a deal that mirrors or exceeds the one given to Nola, who turned 30 in June.
Nola’s contract has an average annual value of $24.6 million. Around this time last offseason, baseball evaluators were projecting Fried might get something similar to the six-year, $162 million ($27M AAV) Carlos Rodón got from the Yankees.
Rodón posted a 6.85 ERA over 14 starts for New York last season. Yankees fans can delight in the fact there are only five years and $135 million left on the 31-year-old hurler’s deal.
Something could always transpire with Fried over the course of this year, but it just doesn’t feel like the time is right for he or the Braves to discuss an extension.