In the buildup to Spring Training, MLB.com is breaking down the Padres’ roster, position by position. Today's newsletter focuses on the starting rotation.
Previously: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF
AROUND THE HORN: ROTATION
Everything else might've gone wrong for the Padres in 2023. But their starting rotation, in no uncertain terms, was one of the best in baseball. San Diego's starters finished the season with a Major League-best 3.69 ERA, and the man at the forefront of that rotation,
Blake Snell, took home his second Cy Young Award.
It's going to be awfully tough to repeat that level of success in 2024.
Snell remains a free agent. Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and
Nick Martinez have already signed elsewhere. Those four combined to make 91 starts last season with a 3.15 ERA among them.
The Padres began their rotation overhaul last month with the trade that sent
Juan Soto to the Yankees. They landed four pitchers who could contribute to the 2024 rotation. Clearly, however, there's work to be done before the Padres can feel comfortable about their group.
Here's a look at where things stand:
On the 40-man roster: Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Michael King, Pedro Avila, Jhony Brito, Jay Groome, Jairo Iriarte, Glenn Otto, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron
Departures: Snell, Wacha, Lugo, Martinez, Rich Hill
Top-30 prospects: Robby Snelling (Padres' No. 3, No. 60 overall), Dylan Lesko (Padres' No. 4, No. 63 overall), Drew Thorpe (Padres No. 6, No. 99 overall),
Iriarte (Padres' No. 7), Adam Mazur (No. 8), Vásquez (No. 15), Victor Lizarraga (No. 17), Ryan Bergert (No. 18), Blake Dickerson (No. 19), Isaiah Lowe (No. 22), Garrett Hawkins (No. 23), Jagger Haynes (No. 29)
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What's the state of the current rotation?
Prior to the Soto trade, when asked about his depleted rotation, manager
Mike Shildt put it diplomatically, saying: "I like our anchors."
That's the optimist's view. The "anchors" Shildt was referring to are Musgrove and Darvish, San Diego's presumed Nos. 1 and 2 starters -- and the likeliest starters for the season-opening two-game Korea Series against the Dodgers.
Both Darvish (elbow) and Musgrove (shoulder) had their 2023 seasons cut short due to injury, but the team says both are healthy and going through their normal throwing progressions. Nothing can be certain on the health front until both ramp up in Spring Training. But for now, the Padres have two "anchors" to build their rotation around.
Beyond them, the only assured starter is King, the prize of the Soto deal. King was dominant down the stretch last season and posted a 2.23 ERA as a starter. After that trio? At this point, it's anyone's guess how the Padres fill out the final two or three places in their rotation.
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Who else is in contention?
To start, the rest of that Soto deal included Vásquez, Brito and Thorpe -- three pitchers who will get a crack at the rotation come Spring Training. Though Vásquez and Brito are also bullpen options, Shildt recently confirmed that both would be built up as starters this spring -- making them part of the rotation mix.
Among the returning options, Avila and Waldron will get a shot. Iriarte is a prospect worth watching. But ...
The Padres are going to need more than that ... right?
Right. With two weeks until Spring Training, general manager A.J. Preller is still searching for starting pitching.
A year ago, the Padres signed Lugo and Wacha as high-upside, buy-low options. That's precisely the type of pitcher they'd like to slot into the back end of their rotation, given that re-signing Snell remains highly unlikely.
Of course, the Padres have also revamped their farm system, which gives them options on the trade front. If they’re looking for a starter to slot alongside Darvish and Musgrove toward the front of the rotation, that’s the avenue they’d take. (Remember, Preller used a deep farm system to acquire Darvish and Musgrove three winters ago. Is it possible something similar unfolds over the next few weeks? Right now, it seems unlikely. I still wouldn't rule it out.)
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Which pitcher has made the most starts in Padres history?
A. Andy Ashby
B. Randy Jones
C. Jake Peavy
D. Eric Show
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The verdict
As currently constructed, the Padres simply don't have enough to form a contending rotation. But, as Shildt noted, the anchors are in place.
Musgrove, Darvish and King are formidable at the top. Meanwhile, pitching coach
Ruben Niebla has an extensive track record of developing young arms, which suggests he'll get the most out of the prospects and new arrivals. The future is bright, with King on board and Snelling, Iriarte, Thorpe and Lesko among the sport’s best starting-pitching prospects.
Still, to fill out this rotation, San Diego needs another acquisition. Probably two. Two more additions would give the Padres the requisite depth for a summer’s worth of attrition. One more addition would at least give them a passable group of Opening Day-roster options.
Until then, however, the San Diego rotation is glaringly incomplete.
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B. Jones holds the franchise record with 253 starts for the Padres -- 23 more than Show. |
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