There isn’t much time for us at MLB Pipeline to sit back, take a breath and enjoy our work. As soon as the Top 100 comes out, we really have to jump into getting Top 30 lists for each team out.
I’m telling you this not as a ploy to curry sympathy, but rather to say that this is a brief moment when I can do just that. So much work goes into getting the list you love to argue about out into the world. Jim Callis and Sam Dykstra are best content partners in the world, and I think we form an amazing Three Musketeers of prospecting. And that’s just the front end. On the production and social media side, our team is unparalleled and I wanted to take a minute to thank (alphabetically): Michael Avallone, Jesse Borek, Willie Cornblatt, Kelsie Heneghan, Josh Jackson, Jason Ratliff and Paige Schector for their efforts for making everything look good, along with the video work by Kyle Casey and Tim Conaughton that gives it all some extra pizazz.
We have sliced and diced the list every which way, but there’s always another angle. Over the weekend, I was thinking about what a divisional prospect power ranking might look like. We probably could drill even deeper once the Top 30s are out and we re-rank all the farm systems, but for now I’m happy to use the Top 100 to take a look at which divisions are the strongest from a prospect standpoint.
I had a theory before looking at any of the data, and maybe it stemmed from the fact I live in Pittsburgh, that the National League Central division was the most stacked. The Cubs, after all, have the most members on the Top 100 with seven, and we’ve often talked about how the Pirates have a strong farm system. Turns out, I was right:
NL Central: 24 Top 100 prospects
AL East: 20
NL West: 18
AL Central: 14
NL East: 14
AL West: 10
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We do have one more way to examine this. Again, it’s not exactly scientific, but it does provide another snapshot of where the talent is. We call them Prospect Points, and the system is pretty simple. You get 100 points if you have the No. 1 prospect, 99 for No. 2 and down to one point for the No. 100 prospect. The Orioles, in case you were curious, have the most PP with 444, starting with having No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday, of course. It’s a look into strength of start talent, and once again, the NL Central is on top. The standings are basically the same as what’s listed above, but it provides a little more info and breaks that tie between the AL Central and NL East. I’ve included the top ranked prospect in each division:
NL Central, 1196 (Jackson Chourio, Brewers, No. 2)
AL East, 1145 (Jackson Holliday, Orioles, No. 1)
NL West, 829 (Ethan Salas, Padres, No. 8)
AL Central, 790 (Colson Montgomery, White Sox, No. 9)
NL East, 654 (Dylan Crews, Nationals, No. 7)
AL West, 436 (Evan Carter, Rangers, No. 5)
The NL Central also has the Pirates' Paul Skenes at No. 3 to really help that total, while the AL East has the Rays’ Junior Caminero at No. 4. Carter and organization-mate Wyatt Langford (No. 6) give the AL West a strong one-two punch, but there’s clearly not nearly as much in the division after that. Montgomery and the Twins’
Walker Jenkins give the AL Central two in the top 10, and Max Clark of the Tigers isn’t too far behind at No. 13. Crews and fellows Nationals outfielder James Wood (No. 14) give the NL East a pair in the top 15. After Salas, the NL West has two more in the top 12 with the D-backs’ Jordan Lawlar (No. 11) and the Padres’ Jackson Merrill at No. 12.
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In 2004, I put together the first-ever prospect rankings on MLB.com, a Top 50. Sometimes it’s good to be lucky, and having
Joe Mauer be our first-ever No. 1 prospect certainly looks good in retrospect now that he’s headed to Cooperstown. We did a deeper dive into the numbers over the years to get a sense how things have stacked up and turned out, so keep an eye out for that story later this week.
Rather than do more data-mining here, I thought this would be a good time to wax nostalgic a little bit. Thinking back to two decades ago, it’s amazing how much this has grown and how much more I know, both in terms of information and people, compared to 2004. And while I take great pride in having done those early lists on my own, I certainly enjoy getting by with a little help from my friends much more.
Looking at that 2004 list, it’s kind of amazing to think that two players on the Top 50 were still playing in the big leagues in 2023: Zack Greinke (No. 4 prospect) and Adam Wainwright (No. 32). It’s also crazy to see that No. 14 prospect
Josh Barfield is now an assistant general manager for the White Sox and No. 23 prospect Bobby Crosby is a very well-respected Minor League manager (with a big league dugout in his future, if you ask me). Guys like Jeff Francouer (No. 28) and James Loney (No. 50) are doing great things on the broadcasting side. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Does all of this make me feel old? Absolutely. It’s a big reason why I like having Callis around, so I’m not the oldest guy here. It’s mind-boggling to think that 20 years ago, I thought that I was
around the same age group (I wasn’t really, but I was close enough to remember, and at least there were a lot of big leaguers my age.). Now, a majority of the prospects on the new Top 100 are younger than my son.
And I wouldn’t want it any other way.
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Not including players currently on lists who haven’t yet reached the big leagues (the Hollidays and Chourios of the world), who is the highest ranked prospect on our rankings (from 2004 on) to never reach the big leagues?
A. Domonic Brown
B. Greg Miller
C. Forrest Whitley
D. Danny Hultzen
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Jan. 30, 1984
Sticking with the 20 years of prospect rankings theme … On this day in 1984,
Jeremy Hermida was born. Hermida was the No. 11 overall pick in the 2002 Draft, taken by the Marlins. He also was the No. 26 prospect on that 2004 Top 50, No. 17 in 2005 and shot up to No. 2 before the 2006 season began. While his big league career didn’t necessarily measure up to that hype, he did collect more than 2,000 Major League at-bats over eight years with the Marlins, Red Sox, A’s, Reds and Padres.
Also born on January 30 (1986) was Mark Rogers, the right-hander the Brewers took No. 5 overall in the 2004 Draft. Injuries really cut his career short, though he did appear in 11 big league games. He was No. 40 on our 2006 Top 50 list.
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B. Greg Miller
Miller was considered by many to be the best pitching prospect in the game heading into 2004, and he ranked one spot ahead of Greinke and
Edwin Jackson on that year’s Top 50 list, coming in at No. 3 overall. That came on the heels of seeing the left-hander go from High-A Vero Beach to Double-A Jacksonville in his first full season of pro ball. He was 18 and finished the 2003 season with a 12-4 record, a 2.21 ERA and 151 K’s in 142 1/3 IP. He ended up missing the 2004 season with two shoulder surgeries and never came close to reaching 100 innings in a season again, with injuries and control issues halting his career. He was released by the Dodgers in 2009 and pitched briefly in independent ball in 2013 before calling it quits.
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