Welcome to the puzzle, Justin Turner. 

The 39-year-old veteran has been there, done that. Turner has maintained consistent production well past when most players retire, let alone decline, and the Blue Jays are betting on him doing that again with a one-year, $13 million deal. 

Turner fits the roster of most contenders well, both on and off the field, but this Blue Jays offseason still feels one major move away from everything falling into place. As constructed, Toronto would still be betting on internal improvements to raise the ceiling from one year ago, which is a dangerous game to play. If the past four years and three sweeps in the American League Wild Card Series have taught this organization anything, it’s the value of winning the AL East. Doing that requires more.

Let’s lay out how this all looks with just two weeks until Toronto's first workout for pitchers and catchers.

There are 1,000 variables here, of course. Second base feels like a timeshare, which is a sensible move for the Blue Jays given their depth. Power-hitting prospect Martinez, who could force the club’s hand by midseason, is probably best suited at that position, too. 

Then we come to the DH reps. The majority of those would belong to Turner under this current construction, but “majority” means something closer to 60-70% here, not every single game. There could be days when Turner plays third and Kiner-Falefa plays the outfield based on matchups. Frankly, having Kiner-Falefa play a good chunk of games in the outfield would be the best way to maximize Toronto’s bench options … unless another big name is added.

That’s why third base remains the Blue Jays’ biggest opportunity. Oddly enough, a Matt Chapman reunion would fit this roster even better now than three months ago, and it would allow John Schneider to deploy Kiner-Falefa as another versatile piece. There could be a fit for a power-hitting outfield/DH hybrid, too, and while all of these options feel like they’d lead to Toronto rolling out 140 lineups over 162 games, the club seems comfortable doing so.

The bench spots could be particularly interesting. The organization loves Horwitz’s bat, but are there enough reps for him with Guerrero and Turner on the roster? Is a true fourth outfielder needed, or can the Blue Jays get by with Kiner-Falefa, Biggio and others sliding out? What is Espinal’s standout trait off the bench? If a prospect kicks the door down -- namely Martinez or Roden by midsummer -- all of this would come into focus much more clearly. 

That’s where this offseason still stands for the Blue Jays. It’s a very good roster with the potential to repeat 2023’s 89-win season, but again, this is an organization that needs to take a run at the division title, not the final Wild Card spot. Another bat is needed, one which would make each previous move shine brighter.

The Blue Jays have value to replace from last season. Kiermaier returns, and while it could be difficult to replicate such a strong season offensively, he remains one of the game’s best defenders. Turner replaces Brandon Belt, another clean fit. For now, Kiner-Falefa replaces Chapman and some of Whit Merrifield’s role. Yariel Rodríguez boosts the club’s rotation depth with Hyun Jin Ryu gone. 

Some optimism is required to believe that the Blue Jays will break even on these, comparing 2023 to the year ahead. They’re betting on major steps forward from the likes of Guerrero, Kirk, Varsho and others, which could very well happen. This is also a bet, though, on a repeat season from an excellent rotation and bullpen. Again, some optimism is required here. 

All of these conversations come back to the same place. It feels like this Blue Jays roster is one major piece away. The trade market remains an option, and there are still some big names available in free agency, led by Chapman and Cody Bellinger. There’s always the chance a prospect could break through and change everything, too, like Schneider did in late 2023. That’s another bet on hope, though, for a team that has been trying to get over the hump for four seasons.

Your new cover athlete for MLB The Show? Guerrero.

It was announced Tuesday, along with a documentary filmed in Guerrero’s hometown in the Dominican Republic.

"Choosing Vlad Jr. was really easy," said Ramone Russell, MLB The Show's product development, communications and brand strategist for Sony. "But we really wanted to go further. And that's why we shot the documentary for our cover announcement. I'm pretty sure we were the first sports video game developing studio to do this. We said, 'Hey Vlad, instead of you coming to San Diego [where the game is produced], how about we go to your hometown, and you show us some of the places that are really important to your life and how you grew up?' So our fans can connect the dots and see that through-line of everything he went through to become such a great athlete and now be on the cover of the game."

To subscribe to Blue Jays Beat, visit this page and mark "Blue Jays Beat" from our newsletter list. Make sure you're following the Blue Jays or that they're checked as your favorite team. 

View Online