PEORIA, Ariz. -- I don't make the lineups -- that's manager Mike Shildt's purview. I'm also aware that lineup construction, in general, is probably overrated.
But -- I don't know -- there's just something romantic to me about the lineup. I spend more time thinking about it (and writing about it) than other topics that are probably more relevant to wins and losses.
Which brings me to the point of today’s newsletter. I'm here to convince you that Jake Cronenworth should hit third.
• Padres' March Cactus League schedule
Probably not a popular take, especially in a lineup that features four hitters who were better offensively than Cronenworth last year and another, Luis Campusano, who would've been, if he qualified. (I'll preface my argument by noting that I'm talking mainly about lineups against right-handers.)
Here’s the crux of it: This offense is too righty-heavy. When the Padres traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to New York, it left Cronenworth as the only returning left-handed-hitting starter. Their five best returning hitters based on wRC+ -- Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim and Campusano -- all bat right-handed.
Generally, of course, you'd want your best hitters as close to the top of the lineup as possible. But there's a downside to stacking those righties together. Late in a game, an opposing manager can fire his top righty reliever at that group. There's no lefty hitter to break it up.
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Enter Cronenworth. If he were to hit with two fearsome righties on either side of him, he'd almost never face a left-hander late in a game. With an always-favorable matchup, Cronenworth goes from a league-average hitter to a well-above-average hitter, a player with a career .770 OPS against righties.
On the off chance an opposing manager uses a lefty with two outs and Cronenworth at the plate? Well, he's not terrible against lefties (.703 OPS), and if he works his way on base, you've got some pretty fearsome righties due up with a matchup advantage.
OK, let's pause for a moment. I can hear your argument against it. If Cronenworth hits third, it means fewer at-bats for, say, Machado and Kim.
Here's where it's important to recognize what the No. 3 hitter actually does. It's not exactly the RBI spot it's cracked up to be. The numbers show there's no place in the lineup that comes to the plate with two outs and the bases empty more often.
You'd rather have Cronenworth in that spot, working his way on base, and setting the table for Machado in the No. 4 spot, the top RBI spot in the lineup. Not to mention, even in a down year, Cronenworth had a higher on-base percentage against righties (.316) than both Machado (.301) and Tatis (.303) -- the primary candidates for the cleanup spot. Let Cronenworth get on base. Let them drive him in.
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Some other benefits:
• Although the Padres are short on lefties, it's possible they'd stack a few at the bottom of their lineup. Perhaps Jackson Merrill and Jakob Marsee. The farther Cronenworth hits from that group, the harder it’ll be for opposing managers to maximize their lefty relievers.
• The Padres really need a bounceback season from Cronenworth, and what better way to get him jumpstarted in that direction than by giving him favorable matchups?
• If the goal is to keep the rally alive for the bopper in the cleanup spot, Cronenworth is sneaky excellent at avoiding double plays.
Here’s the short version: Cronenworth's presence at No. 3 breaks up the righties, gives the Padres more favorable matchups, and it puts their biggest bats in the most leveraged lineup spots.
If I'm drawing it up on Opening Day, I'm going:
1. Tatis 2. Bogaerts 3. Cronenworth 4. Machado 5. Kim
But, again, that's not my job.
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Tony Gwynn holds the Padres' record for plate appearances out of the second and third spots in the lineup. Who has the most from the leadoff spot?
A. Gene Richards
B. Bip Roberts C. Will Venable D. Quilvio Veras
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT...
• Bogaerts’ transition to second base gave him headaches at first. But he’s learning quickly. Story >>
• Michael King made a strong Cactus League debut. Plus notes on Ethan Salas and Joe Musgrove. Story >>
• Yu Darvish is back in his usual spring routine. Unsurprisingly, he looks sharp. Story >>
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WORTH NOTING
• If Musgrove’s right shoulder is healthy -- and thus far, he says it is -- I really wouldn’t read too much into his early-spring struggles. That's because he’s not using his usual arsenal.
Right now, Musgrove is experimenting with a new pitch, a sweeper-like version of his slider. His goal is to make the slider a more distinct offering from his curveball. Musgrove is still trying to figure out the right release point and the best way to locate it where he wants.
“I’m just trying [stuff] out there,” Musgrove said. “The slider’s a pitch I usually have confidence throwing whenever, wherever in the count. Right now, I’m having a little trouble controlling it.”
If the pitch doesn’t improve, Musgrove says he’ll be content to scrap it. But what is February for, if not trying new things?
• As he did in left field, Merrill looked like a natural in center during his debut there Tuesday. He made a pair of catches, including a running grab in the gap to end the second inning.
I’m still skeptical the Padres would ask Merrill, a neophyte outfielder, to play regularly in center field, a premium defensive position. But if he’s a capable center fielder, it opens up new roster options, potentially with Merrill as a left fielder capable of moving to center within a game if the need arises.
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A. Richards’ 2,902 plate appearances in the leadoff spot are the most in franchise history. Just for fun, here’s the Padres’ all-time lineup, based on most plate appearances in each spot:
1. Richards
2. Gwynn (3,962 PAs) 3. Gwynn (5,417) 4. Phil Nevin (2,822) 5. Terry Kennedy (1,213) 6. Benito Santiago (1,214) 7. Luis Salazar (980) 8. Garry Templeton (2,061) 9. Randy Jones (639)
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