Welcome back to the Cubs Beat newsletter. Jordan Bastian has covered baseball for MLB.com since 2005, including the Cubs since the 2019 season.

MESA, Ariz. -- One of the keys to Cody Bellinger’s strong comeback campaign last season was his knack for delivering with his back against the offensive wall. The Cubs’ center fielder adjusted his approach and swing when behind in the count, searching for holes in the defense rather than aiming for the bleacher seats.

The results painted a picture of Bellinger as one of the better situational hitters in the game during the 2023 season. The underlying metrics -- specifically, numbers related to quality of contact -- cast doubt on the sustainability of his offensive output. Bellinger heard some of that talk, but he believes in his ability to repeat his showing for Chicago.

“I definitely obviously hear it, and kind of brush it off,” said Bellinger, who rejoined the Cubs via a three-year, $80 million contract. “I think that there's a lot of different variables that go into it and not to look at one certain stat to dictate a whole season. So, I definitely trust myself as a baseball player to go out every single day and put my best product on the field, and I trust that the positive results are going to come. And I believe in myself.”

After Bellinger issued that response during his re-introductory press conference on Wednesday at the Cubs’ Spring Training complex, his agent Scott Boras -- seated to the outfielder’s left -- wanted to weigh in on the topic, too.

“Those numbers have not been appropriately addressed," Boras said, "because when we talk about soft contact, they don't talk about the counts.”

Boras’ point was that Bellinger’s average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, per Statcast -- a rate that placed the center fielder in the 22nd percentile in MLB last season -- does not tell the entire story. When Bellinger found himself behind the count, especially when in a two-strike count, he shifted into more of a contact-based approach.

Bellinger ended last season with a .279/.313/.411 slash line with two strikes, 76% better than MLB average. When behind in the count, the center fielder slashed .292/.300/.467, 89% better than the MLB standard. When looking under the hood, you can see how his exit velocity in those situations impacted his overall rate.

Bellinger in 2023
Ahead in the count: 90.3 mph
Behind in the count: 85.2 mph
In two-strike counts: 86.2 mph

MLB hitters in 2023
Ahead in the count: 90.5 mph
Behind in the count: 87.4 mph
In two-strike counts: 87.9 mph

Bellinger has a wider gap than the MLB rates when looking at his exit velocities when ahead, compared to when behind or dealing with a two-strike count. When digging into the Statcast numbers in those scenarios, Bellinger’s expected statistics for batting average, slugging percentage and weighted on-base average are higher than the MLB rates for ahead, behind and two-strike situations.

Cubs manager Craig Counsell noted that players will experience differences in their offensive approach from season to season, so he was not going to make any predictions about Bellinger potentially equaling those count-related numbers in ‘24. Counsell was just thrilled to have a player with a track record of elite offensive production when healthy.

“He's got all the tools to be a good offensive player,” Counsell said. “The season goes, and you feel what you're doing as a player, and Cody certainly does that. And that's what worked for him last year. And we'd all certainly take that version of Cody, for sure. But, it could be a different one.”

The Bellinger signing has pushed the Cubs up against the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold ($237 million), which could diminish the chances that the team makes any other major additions before Opening Day. It’d be more realistic for Chicago to see where things go over the first few months, with the goal of supplementing the roster for a playoff run at the Trade Deadline.

During Bellinger’s press conference, the outfielder had Boras on one side of him and Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer on the other. Hoyer was asked if the MLB roster -- bolstered with the acquisitions of Shota Imanaga, Héctor Neris, Michael Busch, Yency Almonte and Bellinger -- was likely set now for the start of the season.

“I think that'd be the expectation,” Hoyer said. “Obviously, we're never going to stop looking and I never put a final nail in that, because I think that things come up all the time -- trades, free agents. But certainly, it's the 28th of February. So, I think that's the expectation, though I would never rule anything out, is kind of how I would phrase it.”

• Belli back with one goal: "Bring this team to the playoffs" Read more >>

• PCA doing all "the right things" amid Bellinger’s return Read more >>

• An updated look at the Cubs’ Opening Day roster projections Read more >>

“I love Pete. I think that he's an amazing kid. And he's got such a bright future ahead of him. He's an amazing talent. Actually during this whole process, we continued to chat just because I really love the kid, I respect him and how he plays the game and everything. So we've had a lot of open communication with each other, and it's nothing but love between us. He's an amazing talent, and he's gonna have a really, really long MLB career ahead of him.” -- Bellinger, on Cubs center-field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong

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