Welcome back to the Mets Beat newsletter! Anthony DiComo has covered the Mets for MLB.com since 2007, including the past 15 seasons full-time on the beat.

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- Spring Training is halfway complete(!), which makes this an excellent time to dip into the mailbag for some questions and answers. It’s been a hot minute since we’ve done this, so let’s get to it. As always, some questions have been edited for length and clarity. 

Are the Mets really not gonna sign another starter?
-- @PatrickH144 via X 

I assume Patrick is referring to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, two of the best starting pitchers in this year’s free-agent class who remain, bafflingly, unsigned. For as long as that’s the case, the Mets are going to continue popping up in rumors about them. Which is only fair. Kodai Senga is hurt and won’t pitch for at least the month of April. On paper, the Mets’ rotation is their weakest aspect heading into mid-March. 

But I want to explain why a signing of Snell or Montgomery remains unlikely, even if one or both decides to take a short-term “pillow” contract. As things stand, the Mets have the highest payroll in baseball, just south of $330 million for Competitive Balance Tax purposes, according to the excellent salary tracking site Cot’s Contracts. That means they’re on the hook for a tax bill of about $77 million, after paying a record $100.8 million penalty last season. They would ultimately like to get under the highest tax threshold to avoid future financial and Draft penalties, and signing Snell or Montgomery would make that a lot harder -- especially on a short-term deal, where their average annual value would be higher. 

For the better part of a year now, Mets officials have referred to 2024 as a “bridge” year to help them clear money off their books and develop prospects. The Mets will be a lot closer to that goal in ‘25. By ‘26, they should be fully there. But sticking to that strategy requires discipline, which means not reaching for low-hanging fruit on the free-agent market. You’ll notice that every player the Mets signed this offseason came on a reasonable one- or two-year deal. That’s no coincidence. 

On top of it all, new president of baseball operations David Stearns genuinely does want to see what the organization has in its younger players. Tylor Megill looks improved, for instance, and it’s reasonable to think he could be a future piece for this rotation. Why not give him that chance now, when the opportunity has presented itself organically? 

I understand that because this is a Steve Cohen-owned team, it would be foolish to count the Mets completely out of the Snell/Montgomery sweepstakes. But Cohen appears committed to this short-term austerity, making the answer to your question a likely no. 

Who do you think has the best shot of making the Opening Day roster -- Ben Gamel, Trayce Thompson, Luke Voit, Ji Man Choi or maybe someone else? 
-- @the_horlick via Threads 

For my money, it’s Thompson. At the risk of placing too much importance on miniscule Grapefruit League samples, Thompson has been hot early in camp, with a grand slam and three extra-base hits over the first week of games. (You may recall he was the subject of this newsletter just a few days ago.) More than that, he has an easier path to a roster spot, needing, realistically, to beat out Gamel, DJ Stewart and Taylor Kohlwey. 

It’s easy to see how that could happen. Thompson is a better and more versatile outfield defender than both Stewart and Gamel, which managers value. His power upside is greater than that of Gamel or Kohlwey. He’s also just a year removed from being one of the most productive bench bats in the league. 

As for Voit and Choi, their defensive limitations give them narrower paths to roster spots. There’s a world in which Mark Vientos struggles enough for the Mets to carry Voit or Choi over him as their primary DH. But enough internal curiosity exists about Vientos that he’ll probably remain the favorite even with a middling spring. 

Which of the young players close to the Majors (Acuña, Gilbert, Scott, Vasil) do you see playing first in the Majors? 
-- @SteelCityy365 via X 

It’s going to be a race between Christian Scott (Mets' No. 5 prospect), Mike Vasil (No. 11 prospect) and Dominic Hamel (No. 14 prospect) to see who can have the hottest start and debut first. Those three starting pitchers will all open the season a phone call away from the Majors. 

Another Top 30 prospect, reliever Nate Lavender (No. 24), might be MLB-ready right now, but his accessible Minor League options will probably force him to the Minors when camp breaks. The Mets have so many out-of-option relievers that their bullpen will be pretty static to open the season, but Lavender should be in the mix as one of their first potential call-ups. 

New York’s position players are a bit further behind -- but not by much. Gilbert and Acuña in particular could help the big club in the second half of 2024.

How long are pitchers with Senga's injury typically out? 
-- @NotATweetster via X

Senga won’t even throw a baseball until at least the end of next week (not counting the balls he was spotted tossing with his left hand in recent days). Once he restarts a throwing program, Senga will need to go through a typical six-week spring progression, and you can probably tack another week onto that because the Mets are going to want him to pitch every six days during his rehab assignment, rather than every five. That brings Senga to early May if everything goes perfectly, which is probably unrealistic. Tack on some buffer time and call it mid- to late May as a reasonable goal for Senga’s return. Shoulders are tricky, and the Mets are going to err on the side of taking things slowly.

• Can you believe that Drew Smith is the Mets’ longest-tenured pitcher? I caught up with him to chat about everything from The Lucas Duda Trade to the SI Swimsuit Model Curse.

• Luis Severino looked solid in his Grapefruit League debut, touching 98 mph on the radar gun. He’s so important to what the Mets are trying to do this season.

• The new Mets Top 30 Prospects list is hot off the presses. See how Sam Dykstra and the Pipeline crew put it together.

• Remember when opinions were split on Zack Wheeler’s original Phillies contract? He just signed a lucrative extension to stick around Philadelphia even longer.

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