Page turned. The 2023 Padres are no more.
The 2024 Padres have arrived, eager to put last season squarely in the rearview mirror -- a metaphor new manager Mike Shildt was happy to latch on to.
“We’ve done our reflection,” Shildt said earlier this spring. “It’s there. But the windshield of what’s in front of us is bigger than the rearview mirror. And we’re definitely looking through the windshield now.”
The road ahead is daunting. The Padres lost several key contributors -- namely their best hitter (Juan Soto), best starter (Blake Snell) and best reliever (Josh Hader). The NL West, meanwhile, is as tough as ever. The Dodgers reloaded in a big way, and the D-backs are fresh off a National League pennant.
With that backdrop, the Padres’ 2024 campaign begins Wednesday morning against those Dodgers in Seoul, South Korea. Here’s a look at what lies ahead this season:
What needs to go right?
In short: Everything that didn’t last season.
The Padres need to be better in close games after they finished 2-12 in extras and 9-23 in one-run games. They need to be better situationally, and they need to capitalize on their opportunities. (And, yes, they probably need some better late-game luck, too.)
But perhaps more than anything, when the season gets tough -- and at some point, it will -- the Padres need to punch back.
“The biggest thing is: How do we battle through and get through adversity? I don’t think we did the best job of that last year,” said first baseman Jake Cronenworth. “We were definitely all trying to get out of what we were in. But I think we all learned a really valuable lesson in … what we learned from those times that were tough.”
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Great unknown?
The 2023 Padres roster was full of veterans and mostly set weeks before the season. The 2024 Padres? Quite the opposite.
Jackson Merrill, a 20-year-old and MLB Pipeline’s No. 12 overall prospect, will get his breakthrough in center field (a position he only began playing last month). Graham Pauley, San Diego’s No. 8 prospect, remains in contention for a roster spot.
And while the rotation is suddenly settled in the wake of the Dylan Cease trade, the organizational depth is predicated largely on unproven young pitchers. The Padres will be calling on their revamped farm system in a big way in 2024.
Team MVP will be ... Fernando Tatis Jr.
In 2021, Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury. He wasn't himself in '22. But in '23, Acuña was the best player in the NL.
That's the trajectory Tatis is shooting for. After missing the 2022 season, he was solid in '23. Tatis expertly handled his transition to the outfield and remained healthy after his return from suspension. But while Tatis showed flashes of the elite player he can be, it wasn’t consistent enough.
"Last year, it was more getting back on track," said Tatis. "... It was a battle. But at the end of the day, I feel like we took control of everything that we can. Now, this year is totally different in preparation and what I'm aiming for."
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Team Cy Young will be ... Dylan Cease
Cease’s arrival does two crucial things for the Padres’ rotation. First, it stabilizes the front end. Both Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish appear healthy, but their 2023 seasons ended early due to injury. Cease, meanwhile, is a frontline arm who has made his full contingent of starts in each of his four full seasons.
“It’s a power repertoire,” said Padres general manager A.J. Preller. “But power with durability.”
Second, Cease mitigates the risk at the back end. Michael King’s transition to the rotation is easier in the No. 4 spot. Meanwhile, the rotation race is suddenly a battle for one place instead of two.
On top of that, Cease is just … good. He struggled last season, but playing in front of a much better defense in San Diego, here’s guessing that Cease will look more like the pitcher who finished runner-up in AL Cy Young voting in 2022.
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Bold prediction: The Padres’ offense will be better without Soto in 2024
Correlation not causation, to be clear. The Padres are not a better offense without Soto, one of the best hitters in baseball.
But they can still be better in 2024 than they were in ’23.
“Obviously we lost some big key pieces,” said Manny Machado. “But we believe in the guys we have in here. We know what our capabilities are. Myself, Bogey and Tati, obviously we’ve got to perform better than we did last year.”
That’s the thing: Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Tatis have already proven they can be better than they were last year. Much, much better. They’ve been three of the best players in baseball over the past five seasons. If they play like it, that’ll go a long way toward alleviating Soto’s absence.
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Cease has made 30-plus starts in three straight seasons. Who is the last pitcher to accomplish that with the Padres?
A. Andy Ashby
B. Andy Benes
C. Brian Lawrence
D. Jake Peavy
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT ... |
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D. Peavy
Peavy made at least 30 starts in each season from 2005-07. |
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