You might be saying, "OK, but those above are full-year averages. The season just started, and this could be statistical noise." Here’s what happens to those same numbers when we limit the sample to similar dates and games totals.
To-date average
2024 (through April 14, 1,216 G): 1.40 SB/G, 81.4% success rate
2023 (through April 17, 1,208 G): 1.27 SB/G, 78.0% success rate
2022 (through April 18, 1,158 G): 1.11 SB/G, 79.6% success rate
2021 (through May 14, 1,156 G): 1.11 SB/G, 76.4% success rate
2019 (through April 15, 1,192 G): 0.86 SB/G, 68.3% success rate
From the data, teams get slightly less successful at stealing bases as the season wears on, leading to fewer steals overall, but there aren’t many significant drops here. So even if the success rate goes down a percentage point or two, it’s still in the 80 percent realm -- a good bit higher than any other season in this five-year period.
That’s an important number to keep in mind. It’s generally considered a good gamble to steal a base if the runner has a 75 percent chance of being successful. Now, all four full-season levels are averaging a success rate well above that. That makes clubs more willing to put the pedal to the metal, leading to more steal attempts, and the cycle continues to spin.
Because speed plays a larger in role in today’s game, clubs are more willing to give roster spots to players whose loudest tool is their running game, and Minor Leaguers have become arguably more athletic as an entire group.
Scott and Simpson both discussed the trickle-down effect of their speed this offseason with my colleague Matt Monagan.
"It's a good way for us to let the new generation of kids know that there are other ways to impact the game," Simpson said. "You can play baseball and make it to the big leagues not by just hitting the ball over the fence. You can get in scoring position, you can hit a single, you can steal second and it's just like a double. Steal second and third and it's just like a triple. We're just trying to inspire and motivate."
While Scott’s speed has taken him to the Majors, Simpson hasn’t stopped running in the Minors either. As of Monday, the Rays’ No. 11 prospect has swiped 10 bags in seven games for High-A Bowling Green and leads the Minors with an average of 1.43 steals per game. That’s above the Minor League team average, and he’s accomplishing it by himself.
Beyond those two 80-grade fliers and the other current steals leaders listed above, here are other notable prospects who could threaten 100 in 2024:
Justin Crawford, OF, Phillies (No. 4, MLB No. 70): “My goal is always to be aggressive, play fast and play hard.” That’s what Crawford told MLB Network from Phillies camp this spring shortly after winning a plurality of the votes for the fastest prospect in an offseason MLB Pipeline executive poll. He’s followed up last year’s 47-steal performance with five more through seven games for High-A Jersey Shore -- a pace that puts him on track for 86 over a 120-game season. Perhaps more are in store as the weather warms up.
